The purpose of risk identification is to find, recognize and describe risks that might help or prevent an organization achieving its objectives. The hazard analysis is an important part of the risk management process, as no action can be made to avoid, or reduce, the effects of unidentified hazards (Health & Safety Laboratory, 2005).
There are a wide range of hazard identification techniques available most of which have many examples published. Each technique has its own strengths and weaknesses (Health & Safety Laboratory, 2005). The most used hazard identification techniques used within the maritime transportation and operations are:
Comprehensive descriptions and best practices of these, and other, methods can be found in the publications listed below:
Arctic Risk Influencing Factors (ARIFs) should be applied as guidewords to trigger identification of hazards. In a HAZID, the following elements should be structured, for each operational step:
The Hazard Identification process is often complemented by rating of hazards (by their probability and consequence), risk evaluation and identification of possible risk reducing measures. This process is described in Stage 3, 4 and 5.
Guidelines and best practice for voyage preparations and operations, including identification of hazards and challenges, are listed below (in alphabetic order):
Relevant, appropriate and up-to-date information is important in identifying risks (ISO 31000:2018). The resources listed below provided regular updates of metocean data, including ice maps, forecast, trends:).
Barents Sea:
Canada:
Global:
Greenland:
Island:
Norway:
Russia:
Understanding the underlying causes of incidents and how human performance is influenced by arctic conditions is critical in the hazard identification process. ISO 31010 emphasizes that;
“Irrespective of the actual techniques employed, it is important that due recognition is given to human and organizational factors when identifying risk. Hence, deviations of human and organizational factors from the expected should be included in the risk identification process as well as "hardware” or “software” events”.
A causal network can be used to expand the perspective on what causes incidents and how consequence may be more severe, thereby supporting the risk identification process. It may also be used to provide guidance on where it will be most effective to take preventive and mitigative actions.
The figures below present networks that shows causal relationships for potential accidents in arctic waters. Each node in the network represents a contributory cause and each line represents a causal link that connects two or more causes to each other. The structure of the network is based on analyses of accident reports from the Accident Investigation Board Norway (AIBN), the Norwegian Coastal Administration (NCA) and accident statistics published by the Norwegian Maritime Authority (NMA). The networks have later been updated with revised Maritime Performance Shaping Factors and inclusion of the influences of ARIFs.
[INSERT: Causal network for ship accident in arctic.pdf ]
[Name in web: Causal network for ship accident in arctic
The figures below show examples of the network applied on grounding and ice incidents. The thicker the line, the stronger and more frequent are the causal links. The analysis is based on qualitative assessment by personnel with experience in risk management and operational experience sailing in arctic waters.
[INSERT: Visio-Causal network_updated_REV6_grounding.pdf]
[Name: Causal network for grounding in arctic]
[INSERT: Visio-Causal network_updated_REV6_ice.pdf]
[Name: Causal network for ice incident in arctic]
The potential harsh environmental conditions in arctic (low temperatures, fog and ice) in combination with limited SAR capacities means the consequences of accidents may be more severe. The network below illustrates the dominating causes and contribution to the elevated risk of arctic in the event of an abandon ship scenario/emergency situation onboard.
[INSERT: Causal network for consequence in arctic.pdf]
[Name: Causal network for consequence in arctic]
Arctic Risk Influencing Factors (ARIFs) influences the likelihood of events and consequences of events. The figure below shows a summary of how ARIFs can potentially influence and cause different types of accidents. The blue boxes in the figure marks the ARIFs that are considered to have most influence on the risk level.
[INSERT: FIGURE2]
[Name in web: Arctic Risk Influencing Factors]
